作者：Shen, W., Qiang, Z., Li, S., Zhuang, Y. & Zhang, L. 2026-7-9

Driven by both human activities and climate change, shifts are occurring not only in nutrient concentrations but also in nitrogen-to-phosphorus stoichiometry (TN/TP ratios), with far-reaching consequences for aquatic ecosystem stability. While seasonal fluctuations in TN/TP ratios are often striking, their interannual changes are comparatively subtle. Yet, long-term studies on TN/TP dynamics and the evolution of their dominant drivers across different timeframes remain limited. Here, in this study, we analyzed multi-decadal data from 12 large Chinese lakes and quantified the contributions of human activities and climate factors to the TN/TP mass ratio dynamics across different time periods. Our results reveal that TN/TP ratios in most lakes have risen significantly over recent decades, initially under single-driver dominance primarily associated with human activities, but gradually shifting toward a regime characterized by the coexistence of multiple drivers. Although human activities have remained the main driver of TN/TP increases, their influence has weakened over time. In contrast, climatic factors currently account for the smallest share of variance but represent the greatest source of uncertainty, and their influence is steadily intensifying. Considering that nutrient concentrations in Chinese lakes remain high and most TN/TP ratios lie within the co-limitation range, dual nitrogen-phosphorus control is essential. In addition, strengthening the resilience of aquatic ecosystems is critical to better cope with the challenges posed by future climate change.

在人类活动和气候变化的双重驱动下，不仅营养盐浓度发生变化，氮磷化学计量比（TN/TP比值）也在改变，这对水生生态系统的稳定性具有深远影响。TN/TP比值的季节性波动往往十分显著，但其年际变化却相对细微。然而，关于TN/TP动态的长期研究以及不同时间尺度上主导驱动因素演变的研究仍然有限。本研究基于中国12个大型湖泊的数十年数据，量化了人类活动和气候因素在不同时期对TN/TP质量比动态的贡献。结果表明，近几十年来大多数湖泊的TN/TP比值显著上升，初期主要受与人类活动相关的单一驱动因子主导，随后逐渐转向多驱动因子共存的格局。尽管人类活动仍是TN/TP比值升高的主要驱动因子，但其影响随时间推移有所减弱。相比之下，气候因素目前所解释的方差占比最小，却代表着最大的不确定性来源，且其影响正在持续增强。考虑到中国湖泊营养盐浓度依然较高，且大多数TN/TP比值处于氮磷共限制范围，实行氮磷双控势在必行。此外，增强水生生态系统的韧性，对于更好地应对未来气候变化带来的挑战至关重要。

（来源：Journal of Hydrology 2026  DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135184）