作者：Peng, C., Yuan, J., Chen, R., Pei, X., Li, D., Li, A., Zhu, S., Wang, Q. & Luo, Y.

Lake surface water temperature (LSWT), a key indicator of global warming, is highly sensitive to climate change. However, its response to drought remains poorly understood. This study utilized a dataset of lake surface water temperatures in China from 2001 to 2020 and the HSPEI drought index to objectively identify drought events that occurred in lake basins over the years and quantify extreme lake surface water temperature anomalies (LSWTA) during droughts. Event coincidence analysis and sensitivity analysis were employed to examine the coincidence rate between extreme LSWTA and drought events under varying climatic variables. Results showed that more than 60% of lakes experience extreme LSWTA during drought events. Extreme LSWTA during drought periods is the combined result of temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, and wind speed. Temperature acts as the primary driver of LSWTA, and increasing temperature gradients significantly elevate the likelihood of extreme LSWTA across all lakes; Precipitation and wind speed generally mitigate LSWTA; However, compared to large lakes, the LSWTA of minor and middle-sized lakes is not significantly affected by wind disturbance. Under sustained and intensified solar radiation, large lakes exhibit both high resistance and high vulnerability to LSWT. This study reveals the heterogeneous responses of LSWT to background climate variables during droughts, providing valuable insights for preventing cyanobacterial blooms and protecting aquatic organisms.

湖泊表面水温（LSWT）是全球变暖的关键指标，对气候变化高度敏感，但其对干旱的响应仍知之甚少。本研究利用2001至2020年中国湖泊表面水温数据集与HSPEI干旱指数，客观识别了历年来湖泊流域发生的干旱事件，并量化了干旱期间极端湖泊表面水温异常（LSWTA）。采用事件重合分析与敏感性分析，考察了不同气候变量下极端LSWTA与干旱事件的重合率。结果表明，超过60%的湖泊在干旱事件期间出现极端LSWTA。干旱期间的极端LSWTA是温度、降水、太阳辐射和风速共同作用的结果。温度是LSWTA的主要驱动因子，温度梯度增大显著提升了所有湖泊发生极端LSWTA的概率；降水和风速总体上缓解LSWTA；然而，与大型湖泊相比，中小型湖泊的LSWTA受风扰动影响并不显著。在持续增强的太阳辐射下，大型湖泊对LSWT同时表现出高抵抗力和高脆弱性。本研究揭示了干旱期间LSWT对背景气候变量的异质性响应，为防控蓝藻水华和保护水生生物提供了重要依据。

（来源：Journal of Hydrology 2026  DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134793）