作者：Liu, Y., Yang, Z., Yue, Y. & Liu, J.

While hydrology and meteorology influence floodplain wetland vegetation, their relative contributions and spatial patterns remain poorly quantified. Hydrological conditions, in particular, can be altered by anthropogenic activities such as damming. To improve the understanding of potential for human control of floodplain wetland vegetation, this study quantitatively assessed the drivers of vegetation dynamics in the Poyang Lake wetland from 2000 to 2023 through trend analysis and statistical modeling. Significantly increasing trends are detected in 58% of the wetland. Major abrupt changes in vegetation trends occurred in 2006, 2010 and 2019, coinciding with extreme hydrological and meteorological events. Hydrological factors are the primary drivers (61%), with average water level emerging as the most critical factor, indicating substantial potential for human regulation. Spatially, northern and central regions are more prone to hydrological regulation, while higher-elevation boundaries and eastern/southwestern regions respond primarily to meteorological factors. Scenario analysis of a proposed water conservancy project reveals that water level regulation produces distinct vegetation responses: lower-elevation areas experience suppression from prolonged inundation, while intermediate zones benefit from extended water availability. These findings provide a scientific basis for adaptive conservation that prioritizes hydrological interventions in hydrologically-controllable zones while maintaining natural processes in climate-sensitive regions.

水文与气象条件共同影响洪泛平原湿地植被，但二者的相对贡献与空间格局仍缺乏定量认识。水文条件尤其可能受筑坝等人为活动改变。为深化对人类调控洪泛湿地植被潜力的理解，研究通过趋势分析与统计建模，定量评估了2000—2023年鄱阳湖湿地植被动态的驱动因素。结果表明：58%的湿地面积呈显著增加趋势；植被趋势的主要突变点出现在2006年、2010年与2019年，与极端水文气象事件相吻合。水文因子是首要驱动因子（贡献61%），其中平均水位为最关键因子，表明人类调控潜力可观。空间上，北部与中部区域更易受水文调控，而高程较高的边界带及东部/西南部区域主要响应气象因子。针对拟建水利枢纽工程的情景分析显示，水位调控将产生分异的植被响应：低海拔区域因持续淹水而受抑，中海拔区域则因供水期延长而受益。这些发现为适应性保护提供了科学依据——在水文可调控区优先实施水文干预，同时在气候敏感区维持自然过程。

（来源：Water Resources Research 2026 Issue 4  DOI: 10.1029/2025wr 040279）