作者：Zhang, J., Guo, R., Zhang, G. et al.

The alteration of lakes modifies the catchment landscapes, and thus the associated hydrological processes (e.g., baseflow). However, the role of lakes in the baseflow dynamics of the Tibetan Plateau is unclear under the effects of climate change. Here, the revised baseflow separation is considered for a quasi-paired catchment. A no-lake scenario is then constructed using machine learning (ML) to quantify the influence of lakes on baseflow signatures. Our results indicate that: (i) The winter baseflow duration curve is in good agreement with the summer baseflow duration curve (R2 = 0.982, %BiasV = 15.38%) within the lake catchment; (ii) Lakes show bidirectional (positive and negative) contributions to the baseflow index, and exhibit a strong reduction effect on the frequency of high baseflow days (-46.82%); (iii) Lakes amplify the influence of temperature on the frequency of both high baseflow days and low baseflow days, while attenuating the impact of soil moisture on rising limb density. These results reveal that lakes act as fundamental modulators, altering how physiographic and climatic variabilities propagate into baseflow behavior in headwater systems. This study enhances our understanding of how lakes regulate catchment baseflow dynamics, supporting the design of water management strategies under future changing conditions.

湖泊改造会改变流域景观，进而改变相关的水文过程（如基流）。然而，在气候变化背景下，湖泊对青藏高原基流动态的作用仍不清楚。研究在准配对流域框架下采用改进的基流分割方法，并利用机器学习（ML）构建“无湖情景”，以定量湖泊对基流特征指标的影响。结果表明：（i）在含湖流域内，冬季基流历时曲线与夏季基流历时曲线吻合良好（R² = 0.982，%BiasV = 15.38%）；（ii）湖泊对基流指数的贡献呈双向性（正、负并存），并对高基流日频率表现出强烈的削减效应（-46.82%）；（iii）湖泊放大了气温对高、低基流日频率的影响，同时削弱了土壤湿度对上涨段密度的影响。这些结果揭示了湖泊作为“基础性调节器”，改变地貌与气候变率向源头流域基流行为的传导方式。本研究深化了对湖泊调控流域基流动态机制的认识，可为未来变化环境下的水资源管理策略设计提供支撑。

（来源：Journal of Hydrology 2026  DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135348）